Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Chicago Cubs +119

The Chicago Cubs are showing great value as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon.  Javier Assad is one of the most underrated starters in baseball and should not be a home dog to the Brewers.

Assad is 2-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in six starts this season while allowing just 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 32 innings.  He has the advantage of having never faced the Brewers as well.

Freddy Peralta has come back down to earth in his last two starts with a 6.30 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings to the Pirates and Rays, which are two of the worst lineups in baseball.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

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15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The San Diego Padres have scored at least 6 runs in five of their last six games and are raking right now.  The Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.9 runs per game at home this season.  This is a very low total for these two offenses up against these two below-average starting pitchers today.

The Padres should stay hot at the plate against Ryne Nelson, who is 1-2 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in four starts this season, including 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in two home starts.  Nelson is 1-2 with a 6.04 ERA in five career starts against the Padres.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against San Diego.

Matt Waldron is 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six starts this season for the Padres.  Waldron allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Diamondbacks in his lone career start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +122

The Seattle Mariners are 12-5 in their last 17 games overall.  They should not be underdogs to Hunter Brown and the Houston Astros today.  The Astros are 12-21 (-14.6 units) this season and grossly overvalued.

Speaking of overvalued, Brown continues to get respect that he doesn't deserve.  Brown is 0-4 with a 9.78 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 25 earned runs and 51 base runners in 23 innings.  He is 0-2 with a 17.46 ERA and 3.70 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle, allowing 11 earned runs and 21 base runners in 5 2/3 innings.

Bryce Miller is 3-2 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing just 8 earned runs and 31 base runners in 35 1/3 innings with 39 K's.  Miller is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in three career starts against the Astros, allowing just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Cleveland Guardians -129

The Los Angeles Angels are in shambles right now without Mike Trout.  The rest of their lineup leaves a lot to be desired and there are more injuries they are dealing with right now.  The Angels are 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  They should be bigger underdogs to the Cleveland Guardians today.

I'll gladly fade Griffin Canning, who is 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six starts this season while allowing 24 earned runs and 45 base runners in 29 innings.  Canning is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA in three road starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* Braves/Dodgers NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

This total of 8.5 is very low for a game involving two of the best offenses in baseball in the Braves and Dodgers.  The Braves are scoring 5.2 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starters, while the Dodgers are scoring 5.5 runs per game overall and 5.8 runs per game at home.

Max Fried is 2-0 with a 4.02 ERA in six starts for the Braves this season.  James Paxton is 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in five starts for the Dodgers, already allowing 22 walks in 25 2/3 innings with only 15 K's.  Neither starter has displayed great stuff this season in the K department.

The Dodgers are 10-1 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.  Paxton is 9-1 OVER when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Magic/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 196

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Teams get more familiar with one another the longer a series goes on.  Teams know how to defend one another, especially when we get to a Game 7.  There is perhaps no better bet in the NBA playoffs than Game 7 UNDERS for this reason.

The Magic and Cavaliers haven't combined for more than 207 points in any game in this series.  They went for 180 and 182 combined points in their first two games in Cleveland before getting to 207 in Game 5.  I think we see a similar result here to those first two games with all that's at stake in this winner-take-all Game 7.

Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 playoff games.  Orlando is 12-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  I also like backing UNDERS in these early start games because players aren't used to playing this early, and it's a sleepy 1:00 EST start time.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Sunday.